An end in La Nina over the Pacific Ocean means lower confidence in an active hurricane season this year.
“La Nina can contribute to an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity by weakening the wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Basin, which enables storms to develop and intensify,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
La Nina is "a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, the opposite of El Nino (“little boy”) which features warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in that region."
The chances of La Nina taking over in the fall and winter is 50-55%.
Given the lack of La Nina, the hurricane season will probably be closer to 'normal' for the first couple months. As it trends towards La Nina, activity may pick up a bit towards the end of the season.