While the National Hurricane Center's parent organization, the National Weather Service/NOAA, puts out their hurricane season outlook in late May, researchers at various universities often make their own.
According to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State, "The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will see 15 to 18 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin."
The long-term (1951 to 2020) average of named storms is 11.
"Of the predicted 15 to 18 named storms, seven to nine may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of two to three storms becoming major hurricanes", the NC State researchers say.
The Gulf of Mexico will see an active hurricane season, though one more in line with historical averages, as Xie’s data indicate the likelihood of three to five named storms forming in the region, with two to four of them becoming hurricanes, and one becoming a major hurricane. Historic averages for the Gulf are three named storms and one hurricane.
"Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin", according to the
NC State website.
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