The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announce today that they have completed their once-a-decade update to the seasonal averages they use to determine how active a season is.
Previously, the average amount of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes was used from the 30-year period from 1981 to 2010.
That meant an average of 12 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
Now, the average is based on data from 1991 to 2020. This means that the average is now 14 tropical storms - 2 more than before - and 7 hurricanes - one more than before. Major hurricane averages are the same, at 3.
These averages are used to determine what is considered normal, below average activity and above average activity.
"These updated averages better reflect our collective experience of the past 10 years, which included some very active hurricane seasons,” said Matt Rosencrans, seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
The increase in the averages may be attributed to the overall improvement in observing platforms, including NOAA’s fleet of next-generation environmental satellites and continued hurricane reconnaissance, their
press statement said.
"This update allows our meteorologists to make forecasts for the hurricane season with the most relevant climate statistics taken into consideration,” said Michael Farrar, director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
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