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Have There Been More Hurricanes In Recent Years Because of Technology?

     Have there been more hurricanes in recent years? Is that from climate change? Or is it just an advancement of technology? The National Hurricane Center's Christopher W. Landsea, Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch, and Eric Blake, a Senior Hurricane Specialist, studied this topic in a recent article of theirs. About 15 years ago, scientists and researchers found that the number of hurricanes had increased over the past hundred years. But interestingly, during the 1940s and 1950s, there was an increase in short-lived or low-impact storms. At the same time, there were more aircraft over the oceans and the Hurricane Hunters began missions looking for hurricanes.  Last year, nearly 42 trillion dollars of damage were caused by tropical cyclones. This included a record-breaking 13 in the U.S., six of which were in Louisiana. Down in Central America, trillions of dollars in damage was delivered by destructive hurricanes such as Hurricane Iota .  O...
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Pesach Forecast Outlook

     Below, we will try to forecast what will happen this Pesach. There are two overall scenarios once we move out of the 7-day range, with very different weather setups. 

For this week (March 23-March 27), see our forecast on the main MinyanCast website. 

Breakdown:

Sunday - Monday, March 28-29: Sunday starts dry but showers move in by the evening or early night. Temperatures drop, leaving only 50s for Monday. 

There are two scenarios for the longer term forecast. 

Scenario 1: 

Tuesday - Thursday, March 30-April 1: This period is active, with a few showers. Temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. 

Friday - Sunday, April 2-4: Temperatures stuck in the upper 40s to low 50s. No rain during this time. 

Monday - Tuesday, April 5-6: Temperatures back in the 50s. Monday is more likely to be dry, but showers could move in Tuesday. 

Scenario 2: 

Tuesday - Thursday, March 30-April 1: This period is dry. Temperatures in the upper 50s. 

Friday - Sunday, April 2-4: Temperatures moving into the 60s, maybe near 70. Sunny skies throughout.  

Monday - Tuesday, April 5-6: Temperatures still in the 60s. Monday is more likely to be rainy, but Tuesday could be dry. 

With the above differences in mind, plus the fact that it is 7 to 14 days away - beyond any typical forecast, we can't count on this as anything definite. But we can check back after Pesach to see how it turned out. 

Our prediction: 

Monday, March 29: Clearing skies, with highs of 57. 

Tuesday, March 30: No rain during the daytime but possibly Tuesday night, with highs around 58. 

Wednesday, March 31: A shower, with highs around 57. 

Thursday, April 1: A spotty shower, with highs around 58. 

Friday, April 2: No rain with a high around 52. 

Shabbos, April 3: Highs around 60 under sunny skies. 

Sunday, April 4: Highs reach near 65 with sunny conditions prevailing. 

Monday, April 5: Temperatures dip to near 58, with a shower later in the day. 

Tuesday, April 6: A shower early, then a high of 60. 

Pale yellow is temperature, Green is rain chances

Temperatures and rain chances are given with a 60% confidence for 7-10 days away, 50% for 10-12 days away with it decreasing to 40% for 12 to 14 days away.

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