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Have There Been More Hurricanes In Recent Years Because of Technology?

     Have there been more hurricanes in recent years? Is that from climate change? Or is it just an advancement of technology? The National Hurricane Center's Christopher W. Landsea, Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch, and Eric Blake, a Senior Hurricane Specialist, studied this topic in a recent article of theirs. About 15 years ago, scientists and researchers found that the number of hurricanes had increased over the past hundred years. But interestingly, during the 1940s and 1950s, there was an increase in short-lived or low-impact storms. At the same time, there were more aircraft over the oceans and the Hurricane Hunters began missions looking for hurricanes.  Last year, nearly 42 trillion dollars of damage were caused by tropical cyclones. This included a record-breaking 13 in the U.S., six of which were in Louisiana. Down in Central America, trillions of dollars in damage was delivered by destructive hurricanes such as Hurricane Iota .  O...
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Updated Feb 7: Looking Ahead: Artic Blast Next Week

     Sunday, February 7 Update: A modified arctic air mass is moving in tonight, though temperatures will be able to moderate some under sunny skies Monday. Temperatures will be up and down a bit this week, as we end up on two sides of varying systems - sometimes the cold end, and a couple times on the warmer end. However, compared to climatological averages, it will be average temperatures, even on the 'warmer' days. 

Another push of arctic air could move through this weekend and push back next week. This details aren't certain, as slight disturbances can shift things. 

Meanwhile, brutal cold continues in the north-central United States.

"While the Northeast struggles to crack the freezing mark on Monday, parts of the Northern Plains will struggle to get above zero as a prolonged bout with frigid temperatures continue into the middle of the week," the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) said Sunday.

"Brutal wind chills as cold as -50 degrees also linger in portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through Tuesday."

The WPC highlights one of the biggest challenges in these arctic air forecasts. 

"The main forecast challenge is the evolution of the slow moving, meandering polar vortex over the Canadian prairies and its southward/southeastward progression (or lack of) by later in the [forecast] period."

Later this week, snow or other wintry weather is possible. 

"With the cold air in place farther inland, a swath of snow and ice remains possible from portions of the Ohio Valley to the Northeast"

--

Wednesday Evening, February 3 Update: Due to a lack of phasing of energy in the atmosphere, precipitation is no longer likely Sunday. As a result, there is no system to pull the cold air our direction. But it should move in next week, just a bit delayed. 

-- 

Monday Evening, February 1 article: 

Looking ahead to next week, extreme cold is looking likely. It could start off with some snow before or as temperatures plunge. 

Here is a look at what could happen. 

Temperatures are likely to fall in response to a cold front Sunday or maybe Monday. Some atmospheric signals and computer models indicate this could be extreme cold. 

The GFS (American) model predicts temperatures in the single digits for Monday morning. 


In these long-range predictions, don't focus on the exact number. This can be used as an estimate for what we could get next week.

This cold weather may follow some wintry weather Sunday/Monday. This is still several days away, so uncertainty is high. As always, check back for the latest forecasts and look at our winter weather page.

But pictured are two computer model predictions for what may be coming. 

The GFS (first image) shows a low pressure system moving to our north, and maybe grazing us. The Canadian model (second image) shows a direct impact.



Either way, the National Weather Service is already saying "A big push of artic air is expected to shift into our region Sunday afternoon."

We added a few features to get the month started.

Check out what we did in our recent post here.
Sentry Page Protection
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     Have there been more hurricanes in recent years? Is that from climate change? Or is it just an advancement of technology? The National Hurricane Center's Christopher W. Landsea, Chief of the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch, and Eric Blake, a Senior Hurricane Specialist, studied this topic in a recent article of theirs. About 15 years ago, scientists and researchers found that the number of hurricanes had increased over the past hundred years. But interestingly, during the 1940s and 1950s, there was an increase in short-lived or low-impact storms. At the same time, there were more aircraft over the oceans and the Hurricane Hunters began missions looking for hurricanes.  Last year, nearly 42 trillion dollars of damage were caused by tropical cyclones. This included a record-breaking 13 in the U.S., six of which were in Louisiana. Down in Central America, trillions of dollars in damage was delivered by destructive hurricanes such as Hurricane Iota .  O...
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